T h e

K a s h m i r

T  e  l  e  g  r  a  p  h

Vol I Issue IX

A Kashmir Bachao Andolan Publication

January 2003

I N S I D E


 

Spotlight 

Romeet K WATT

 

Editorial     

TKT Says......

 

GuestColumn     Krishnamoorty       

 

Big Fight      

Romeet K WATT

 

On Track     

Romeet K WATT

 

Opinion

T R Jawahar

 

Analysis

Sawraj Singh

 

State Craft

Romeet K WATT

 

Report

SAT Feature

 

Last Word

Romeet K WATT

 

 


 

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A N A L Y S I S

Putin's visit to India & China

Sawraj Singh


Russian President Vladimir Putin recently visited China and India: This trip has great historical significance because it represents an emergence of a grand eastern alliance. This alliance, consisting of Russia, China, and India will be the largest and historically, the most powerful alliance in the world. It will radically change the balance of power, putting an effective end to the western domination of the world, which has lasted for the past two centuries. This will also change our perceptions of the last two decades; that we are heading towards a unipolar world with exclusive American hegemony and that the western style of capitalism has emerged triumphant.

 

Many people, all over the world, had started believing that globalisation, which is the highest developed form of the capitalist mode o f production, has established itself as the pattern of development for all of the countries of the world and as the foundation of the new world order. Both these assumptions will be proven wrong. Actually, the world is headed towards a multipolar world where no country, race, colour, region, religion, nation, or ideology can have exclusive domination of the world. Instead of a uniform pattern of development, various countries and regions will follow different systems of progress. China and Russia attained almost identical views on all of the major problems of the world.

 

The final thirteen page joint -communiqué between Putin and the Chinese president Jiang Zemin reflected this unity and understanding. Whether the issue was Iraq, North Korea, global hegemony, or the concept of a multipolar world, both leaders expressed similar views. China showed support for Russia's entry in the WTO. In another very important issue, the Russian role in South Asia, the Chinese gave their full support. These developments will have a great impact on the situation in South Asia. Russia is perceived by many people in India as a true and trusted friend.

 

After the fall of the Soviet Union, there was a tendency in India to seek an anti-Chinese and anti-Islamic alliance with the USA and Israel. The Russians were pushed to the background. Now this trend appears to be completely changing. There is a realization that America and India have different goals and that their natural alliances are also different. India has been particularly frustrated with the American attitude on terrorism. Many Indian leaders are speaking against the double standards on this issue. They feel that America has shown insensitivity to India's becoming a victim of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism.

 

Russia, on the other hand, has openly and strongly criticized Pakistan for supporting terrorism. Putin even raised the possibility of terrorists belonging to such groups as the A l Qaeda Network getting nuclear weapons from Pakistan. Russia and India also have concerns about an American attack on Iraq. A growing number of people have been thinking that Putin wanted to increase pressure on America with his harsh condemnation of Pakistan. He could be hinting that such an attack on Iraq may lead to an Indian attack on Pakistan. This scenario is capable of creating tremendous difficulties for America, if it responds to Russian-supported Indian attacks on Pakistan, then it risks escalating the conflict.

 

The Chinese are not expected to support Pakistan but are likely to try and keep America out of their backyard. This can mean an almost certain defeat for Pakistan. If America does not respond and Pakistan loses, then it can be seen as a blow to American prestige because America's ally loses. In 1971, India, with the support of Russia defeated and dismembered Pakistan. This lead to the rise of Russian influence and the decline of American influence in the subcontinent. America was able to counter this trend by lining up with China against Russia, but now, the situation is very different.

 

For all practical purposes, Russia and China have made a strategic alliance. India's growing frustration with America, and the fact that most of the weapons of the Indian army are still coming from Russia, almost assure that India will follow Russia, that meaning, it will join the alliance of Russia and China. There is a very noticeable change in India's attitude towards China. In the past, China was seen as a rival and an adversary, but now a growing number of Indians are impressed by China's progress. Many feel that the western pattern of development cannot work in India and that India should also learn from the Chinese experience.

 

More and more Indians are becoming convinced that India's future lies in the east. Improving relations with China is being seen as an important step towards coming back to the Asian fold. The great eastern alliance of Russia, China, and India will contain the largest population of any single alliance--more than four times that of NATO. It looks almost certain that within a decade, China will become the largest economy in the world. Russia has the largest land-mass and the most untapped resources in the world. Russia also has a large industrial base and sophisticated weaponry. The fact cannot easily be forgotten by many people in the Indian subcontinent that it was India armed with Russian weapons which beat Pakistan, who were armed by America in the last major Indo-Pakistan war (1971).

 

India can also bring a very useful asset to the alliance. India has the largest pool of trained work force in the world, particularly in computer technology. This contribution can be a great source of potential strength for the alliance. The emergence of the great eastern alliance can help with restoration of the balance of power in the world and thus help in maintaining peace and harmony in the world. Historical experience teaches us that imbalance of power leads to instability, and eventually war.

 

The three major trends of the world are inevitable. Asia emerging as the leading region, China becoming the largest economy and Islam becoming the largest religion. All these trends mean that the 21st century will be fundamentally different than the last two centuries. An alliance of Russia, China, and India can help t o make this transition smooth. Instead of a violent confrontation, a peaceful change will be a welcome change for people of the world, including Americans. Let us hope that the 21st century will make this world a better place to live for all. 

 

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